Rentals available by Studio

[NA9D]

I was perusing some movies just now on my Vudu when I noticed that it seemed like every Sony Pictures movie was not rentable but purchase only - even older releases. So I thought I'd make use of the Vudu's search feature and break down the rentals vs. total movies for each studio. Interesting results:

Studio..................Total Movies................Rentals.....% rentable
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

20th Century Fox.........119.......................100......... .84
Lionsgate...................240................... ....99............41.25
New Line.....................91....................... 88...........96.7
Paramount.................249..................... ..86...........34.5
Sony.........................502.................. .....69...........13.7
Universal...................596................... ....574..........96.3
Disney......................108................... ....108*.........100
Warner Bros..............410.......................121... .......29.5

* Disney showed 106 available as of 1/1 but at least one more was rentable beginning on 1/2. Disney also has ZERO movies for purchase so all have to be rentable.

Interesting results here. The studio who seems to be the most behind Vudu is Universal with a 96.3 rental percentage and the largest total base of available movies. New Line gets it too but they have less than 100 movies on Vudu. Disney gets it from rental but they don't allow purchase - so do they get it?

Interestingly enough, from all of these studios, some of the movies that are rentable cannot be purchased. So it's not at all uniform - not all movies can be purchased either.

What's the best course of action? Part of me says to really support the Universal movies as they get it. But then if studios like Sony see no revenu stream from what they do have available to rent, they aren't necessarily likely to add more rental content...

I just find these numbers interesting...

ps: sorry for all the "............."s - Vbulletin doesn't like spaces...

[Nded]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

If you include all of the independent studios the numbers shift to having 3,859 titles that can be purchased, and 3,434 that can be rented. This would not include the recent addition of several hundred TV episodes that are "purchase only" for $1.99.

[Limey]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

humbly - they only rental availability statistic that matters is the "Top 50-100" new releases across all-studios. Vudu needs 100%.
As long as Vudu users are "forced" to use another service/outlet to rent any one of those "Top 50+" current new releases, they're going to see the box-cost barrier and user churn numbers limit growth. Eventually users are going to start feeling the pinch of cumulative costs to get 100% new release coverage and will pick one - Netflix/BB + Cable VOD + iTunes + Vudu and so on.

I don't know what the average rentals/week numbers are (~3wk/152yr?), but Vudu's fixed cost adds $1.04 to each rental; that's >$5 per rental for most new releases - assumes 3yr depreciation on a $399 box + $75 in required accessories.

Add in the other various rental/subscriptions fees, and I think you reach a major threshold for adoption.

[longhorn]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

I agree with Limey. It's the "fat head" that matters to most consumers - there are plenty of movies that I pass in the theaters, then am reminded of upon DVD release - the ability for immediate VOD when I see the "Now available on DVD" would be a killer feature. I'd say about 90% of my rentals are movies released in last 6-12 months.

The long tail of movies / full library is great for the heavy consumer, but I don't think the masses will appreciate that if they can't find new releases.

And I think 3 rentals a week is high (though perhaps not for early adopters / cinema buffs) - for mainstream consumers my guess is ~1/week so that really hurts the economics...of course if you think of Vudu as a multi-year investment it helps in the other direction.

P.S. It does not surprise me to see Sony at the bottom of the OP's chart, given their investment in Blu-Ray.

[Limey]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

...I wonder what the average rental/week number actually is; does anyone know?

I know that with two kids and just between VOD and retail rentals I'm averaging 4 rentals per week... between NF + VOD + Vudu I'm probably spending greater than $600 per year on "rentals" alone.
-mgc

[redwein]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

humbly - they only rental availability statistic that matters is the "Top 50-100" new releases across all-studios.

Maybe to you, but certainly not to me. I didn't buy my Vudu to only watch new releases. I bought my Vudu to not have to build and maintain my own DVD library. The rental situation for the older movies is at least as importatnt and possibly more important to me since I watch more older movies per week or month than new releases.

I think we should all be careful when we assume that our own personal viewing habits and priorities match the common or majority usages.

[Limey]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

redwein - I wasn't arguing that top 50+ is the only factor that matters; I would (again humbly) suggest that the volume of posts concerning new release availability does support this being a leading indicator for future broad-based adoption. I would also speculate that this might be a contributing factor as to why Vudu doesn't overtly advertise what is and is not available and when; but uses the quick-flip tiles to represent what is available...To wit, the FAQ answer #10 is a little, how should I say, generous regarding both the release scheduling and rental options for Tier 1 new releases...but does use the term "generally" so escapes major criticism...caveat emptor applies here.

[redwein]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

redwein - I wasn't arguing that top 50+ is the only factor that matters;

Actually your statement "they only rental availability statistic that matters is the "Top 50-100" new releases across all-studios" contradicts this. I agree with you that is important though. My responses are basically just meant to ensure a balanced representation of all views. On forums like this, there are times that a single, but loud, negative voice gives an impression that it speaks for more people than it actually does. That's just an obvious by product of the squeaky wheel syndrome.

[Limey]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

redewin - to each their own, however and without 100% of top 50+ every other use-case becomes ancillary; if they can't deliver the content they can't sell the box.

Vudu may (as in maybe) survive as a niche catering to indy-lovers or those looking to shed their the physical libraries, but I assume the Vudu BOD and investors are not looking at their growth projections based on Vudu being a niche player or distributor of second tier content...therefore, and assuming Vudu is looking for mass-market adoption I'd bet (my Vudu box) they will need to get on-par with other retail outlets...it's ALL about the content. The mass market is not going to invest $399 to buy a box and then wait >3 weeks after DVD -release to rent a movie. Moreover, who want to buy a 400 "harddrive" to store movies if the company behind that box has an uncertain future; an uncertain future based on the fact that it's competing at a disadvantage to other established retail outlets.

[longhorn]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

...I wonder what the average rental/week number actually is; does anyone know?

Just some quick BOE analysis - Netflix mails out 1.5M DVDs per day, and with a subscriber base of ~7M, that equates to ~0.2/day or just under ~1.5/week per sub.

Question is whether Vudu is gunning for the "average" Netflix subscriber...I don't think so in the short term, and there are many other threads about changes required for mass market adoption

Sources:

http://www.cs.uic.edu/~liub/KDD-cup-2007/NetflixPrize-description.pdf (1.5M/day)

http://www.netflix.com/MediaCenter (7M subs)

[Limey]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

Thanks Longhorn...interesting number for just netflix. I would imagine that even the average netflix user rents from other outlets as well, and agreed, not worth going after the average user..

[MaxH]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

Very interesting, longhorn, thanks. I would guess that right now, VUDU usage would probably be significantly higher, since it's still fairly novel to most customers, and new features are being added frequently, but it wouldn't surprise me if eventually VUDU settled down with an average not too far from 1.5 movies/week.

[redwein]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

redewin - to each their own, however and without 100% of top 50+ every other use-case becomes ancillary; if they can't deliver the content they can't sell the box.

Vudu may (as in maybe) survive as a niche catering to indy-lovers or those looking to shed their the physical libraries, but I assume the Vudu BOD and investors are not looking at their growth projections based on Vudu being a niche player or distributor of second tier content...therefore, and assuming Vudu is looking for mass-market adoption I'd bet (my Vudu box) they will need to get on-par with other retail outlets...it's ALL about the content. The mass market is not going to invest $399 to buy a box and then wait >3 weeks after DVD -release to rent a movie. Moreover, who want to buy a 400 "harddrive" to store movies if the company behind that box has an uncertain future; an uncertain future based on the fact that it's competing at a disadvantage to other established retail outlets.

My main disagreement is with the absoluteness that you refer to what people will buy, why Vudu will fail if it doesn't immediately change, etc. Of course they will need the things you are mentioning w.r.t. new release availability, etc. I just think that this needs to happen over time and I believe it will. I was also pointing out that when you make statements like "it's the only thing that matters", you should expect someone to chime in who thinks that is an overly strong statement.

[Limey]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

... I just think that this needs to happen over time and I believe it will. I was also pointing out that when you make statements like "it's the only thing that matters", you should expect someone to chime in who thinks that is an overly strong statement.

Redwein - fair observation & comment, but I think my view is little longer range than immediate; somewhere in the 6-12 month range. But I do see the Top 50+ as being the primary catalyst for growth outside the usual early-adopter crowd - how else can you convince a consumer base still riding the fence over Blu/HD?

That's s not to say the service can't ride the wave to impressive short-term growth...but here's the problem: there will be a significant number of early users who fall into two classes - the early adopters who love everything about the offering, and will stick with it no matter what, and those who loved it for the first ~60-90 days while they spent their $50 in free movies only to find the new content lagging behind other outlets. They'll either become dormant or flip their boxes on ebay.

To the extent that the Vudu base grows, so will market awareness re: it's limitations, combined with the high entry-cost for the box, Vudu runs the risk of plateauing; this will in-turn have an effect on licensing power...which is why I say in a different thread (Open Letter...): focus on content acquisition and licensing, the delivery fundamentals are already in place. Despite the tone of this thread - I'm highly positive on the potential for the service and have enjoyed the box since receiving it; I'm also intimately familiar with the industry so know that unless Vudu matches it's technical prowess with on-par content, it will not enjoy the success it deserves.

[redwein]

Re: Rentals available by Studio

I'd sum our whole discussion up as follows. I think we both basically agree on where Vudu needs to go to be successful. I think I am a bit more optimistic and my actual expectation is that they will do the things necessary to achieve it. You are probably more toward the skeptical end of the spectrum and that is probably what I am picking up in the tone of some of your posts.

I guess in the end, either Vudu will do what I expect and they will succeed, etc., or they will fall short and your skepticism will be validated. Regardless, that is all in the future and I would tend to believe that the people who put up money for this venture are aware of what they are up against and have a plan to succeed. I seriously doubt they are just winging it.